facebook, google, microsoft

Facebook’s outrageous $6B price tag

John Battelle asks what would justify a $6B acquisition price for Facebook, 200 times current estimated earnings of $30 million a year.

It got me thinking. After all, in 2002, tons of folks were asking the same question. Why Google, why now, when there were dozens of other search engines out there?

Last time, there was an easy answer: PageRank.

Is there an easy answer this time?

I don’t see one. Do you?

I think Facebook is clearly trying to get into the identity game. They are now farming out their R&D to developers via their platform while focusing on their core business of hording user data and allowing users to generate a virtual identity. Couple this with the social graph they own and you have a site that grows more valuable every time a user interacts on the network. Yes, all those wall posts, relationships, photos — structured and proprietary data — that is what makes the site invaluable to users, it is what will keep them on Facebook.

Clearly, the value of Facebook is not their technology. This can be duplicated, well, in another college dorm room. It is their possession of data and the increasing value of the network that make it a marketers playground, hence the price tag.

Yes it is outrageous to think that a company should be acquired for 200 times earnings. Weren’t people just complaining about DoubleClick selling to Google for an estimated 10-12 times revenue? But this purchase would be about obvious opportunity to own something that is currently up for grabs on the Web: identity.

Facebook will continue to grow and Microsoft is looking to buy into the Internet with the growth company of 2007.

A quick note: that DoubleClick purchase Google made was 25-31 times EBITDA.